US Navy’s Future Fleet: Embracing Unmanned Systems for an Affordable, Adaptable Force

By Javier Gonzalez

The U.S. Navy is at a critical juncture, currently undertaking a comprehensive Fleet Structure Assessment to chart its long-term strategy for the next 30 years. This vital review stems from a stark reality: the geopolitical landscape has shifted dramatically since the 2014 proposal for a 308-ship fleet. The unexpected resurgence of Russia and China’s rapid military expansion necessitate a fundamental rethink of naval power. While understanding an uncertain future remains a challenge, a new vision emerges: an unmanned-centric, man-led fleet that prioritizes optionality, affordability, and adaptability.

Embracing Optionality in Naval Design

A truly relevant naval force must be robust, flexible, and adaptable. This concept, dubbed ‘optionality,’ offers asymmetric upside with limited downside. While systems like the Vertical Launch System (VLS) provide some flexibility, allowing for rapid weapon integration, the focus must now shift significantly. Traditional ship design often prioritizes optimization for current capabilities, leading to smaller, more affordable, but ultimately inflexible vessels. This approach assumes a level of certainty that modern warfare simply doesn’t allow.

Instead, the future Navy fleet should make long-term investments in adaptable unmanned systems, or “unmanned buses.” These platforms must be designed with maximum power generation, cooling, and space availability, alongside robust command and control systems to enable cooperative operations. By integrating flexibility early in the design process, the Navy can rapidly and affordably react to evolving geopolitical situations and technological innovations, making optionality a cornerstone of its strategy.

Building an Affordable and Relevant Fleet

The goal of a larger, more capable fleet – potentially a 450-ship Navy – collides with current fiscal realities. Affordability is not just about budget availability; it’s also a function of adversary actions. Historically, the U.S. strategy against the Soviets imposed costs by rendering their systems obsolete. Today, the roles are reversed, with China’s rapid fielding of “game-changing” technologies, such as the DF-21D missile or quantum communications satellites, forcing expensive U.S. counter-investments.

This high-cost arms race is unsustainable. The unmanned-centric fleet offers a crucial alternative. Manned ships can continue to be built based on mature, proven technologies, avoiding the costly acquisition blunders seen with immature tech on platforms like the Gerald R. Ford carrier. Simultaneously, unmanned systems integration allows for rapid prototyping and experimentation. Like a smartphone with diverse applications, unmanned platforms can quickly test and evolve new technologies, accelerating research and development cycles and fostering rapid change at a fraction of the cost, ensuring a truly affordable Navy fleet.

The Unmanned-Centric Vision for Naval Warfare

An unmanned-centric force structure demands a significant departure from current goals. Imagine Surface Action Groups (SAGs) evolving from three manned ships to a manned vessel teamed with at least two unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) like DARPA’s ASW Continuous Trail Unmanned Vessel (ACTUV) or General Dynamics’ Fleet-class. This manned-unmanned teaming immediately boosts lethality and adaptability.

In amphibious operations, unmanned platforms could revolutionize resupply in contested environments. Further down the line, instead of eleven 100,000-ton aircraft carriers, a mix of eight traditional carriers with eight to ten smaller (~40,000-ton) all-unmanned combat air vehicle carriers could provide unmatched flexibility and global presence. By trading a portion of traditional large and small surface combatants for an increased number of highly capable USVs, the Navy gains significantly more deployable assets at a much lower operational cost per day, addressing the persistent demand for greater naval presence globally.

Conclusion: A New Era for US Navy Force Structure

The ultimate goal for the US Navy force structure must be relevance and affordability. This can be achieved by pivoting towards developing highly capable unmanned capable buses designed to accommodate current technologies while being inherently flexible for future innovations. Optionality, embedded in both shipbuilding and unmanned systems integration, will provide the adaptability the Navy desperately needs in an uncertain future. The upcoming Fleet Structure Assessment must boldly envision an unmanned-centric, man-led fleet – a more capable, affordable, and relevant force for tomorrow’s complex maritime challenges.

Commander Javier Gonzalez is a Navy Federal Executive Fellow at the John Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory and a career Surface Warfare Officer. These are his personal views and do not reflect those of John Hopkins University or the Department of the Navy.

Reprinted with permission from the Center for International Maritime Security.